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Floods in Brazil show a glimpse of what's to come

Writer's picture: LuizaLuiza
Climate change is here and will affect people differently

An unprecedented tragedy in Brazil, the flood that devastated Rio Grande do Sul is already considered by some experts to be the biggest climate disaster in my country's history—at least in terms of the extent of the territory and the number of people affected. 


Practically the entire territory (95%) of Brazil's most southern state was impacted. That's an area the size of Germany or around the size of Montana or New Mexico in the US.


The storms were caused by a combination of factors. As the southern hemisphere is now experiencing fall, cold air masses move from Antarctica to Brazil. But in the center of the country an abnormal mass of hot air prevented the cold from continuing its way causing heavy clouds to be trapped in the southern region. This probably caused by a warmer climate.


To make matters worse, El Niño warms the Pacific Ocean waters bringing more humidity to the region. 


All of this led to days of record rain. Rivers filled and reached levels never seen before and floods caused havoc. So far they have affected more than 2 million people, caused around 150 deaths and left more than 500,000 homeless. It is as if overnight Lisbon's entire population was homeless.


The feeling that this is not normal has been very clear to all Brazilians, particularly those affected. Humanity's impact on the planet has also continuously been directly associated with it. And little by little we are realizing the scale of this catastrophe and what it means for the future.


Environmental disasters affect different people differently 

Extreme events affect different social groups in different ways and with varying intensity, even more so in such an unequal country as Brazil. Although rich areas and houses were also affected, some groups are more at risk than others. Recovery from this tragedy is far more difficult for them. 


People who could afford to flee to other areas, pay for hotels or rent a property did so after the floods. While the poorest populations faced the most challenges. They can only rely on shelters, which are, at the moment, not enough for the size of tragedy. 

This is a very clear example of how climate change has an unequal impact. The entire region is in an emergency situation of public calamity, yet different population groups have different resilience capacities.


In addition, there were many differences between different regions of the state. While some areas were flooded and there were substantial material losses with many people losing furniture or appliances, some villages and neighborhoods were completely wiped out.

Photo by Gustavo Mansur/ Palácio Piratini

Losing your home is more than just a material loss. It's a representation of your life, your memories and everyone living with you. When entire villages are destroyed it also means losing all social connections and relationships. It can be extremely traumatic.


Long-time consequences

History shows that flooding is followed by a large increase in diseases such as dengue, hepatitis, diarrhea, and skin infections. This is either as a result of contact with contaminated flood water or direct contact, since thousands of people are living very close together in shelters. 


Then, there are the economical consequences. All agricultural sectors in the region were affected by the floods. This included particularly serious damage to food crops such as rice, beans and soy, which had harvest interrupted. Pastures were also damaged by water and many animals drowned.


Horse stuck on a roof for over four days due to the floods in Brazil. A new symbol for climate change (Photo by Globo).

All of this leads to the fear that floods could boost food prices in Brazil since the state is very strong in agriculture production. For instance, it accounts for 70% of national rice production. Experts say it is too early to measure the impact on inflation, but many predict a price increase inevitable.


Taking only the industries into account, the authorities estimate that 91% of all factories in the state are flooded. This affects the entire production chain. Companies fear a breakdown in the productive sector and Brazilian authorities have already predicted a lost decade for the state.


Extreme events are here to stay

What is very concerning is that these tragedies are happening sooner than expected. A report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change, the UN IPCC predicted that these phenomena would become more recurrent, but only after 2030 or even 2040. They are happening early because of the rapid increase of the average temperature of the planet. In 2023 the warming record was broken with 1.5 C over the pre-industrial period.


2024 doesn't look much better, with above average heat continuing. The oceans have broken all warming records in history since the last inter-glacial period, that is, in the last 125,000 years. When the ocean is very hot it evaporates more water and all this water is a source of energy for all rain systems, causing increasing floods everywhere.


Climate refugees have already outnumbered war refugees

We are not even half-way through 2024 and we already have witnessed disastrous floods in many countries: Brazil, Iraq, Afghanistan, Haiti, Indonesia, Kenya, Pakistan, the USA, Germany, and Saudi Arabia. When you combine only the floods in East Africa and Brazil, there are more than 700,000 people who have been forced to leave their homes. They are already being considered climate refugees, as they should.


Unsurprisingly, the worst affected are the poorest countries, which can prepare and respond the least to those events. In those countries there are insufficient preventive measures, alerts, many houses are built precariously, there aren't enough shelters, there is already a large homeless population, and many other social-economic challenges.

(Photo by Brazilian Air Force)

But in the long term, what can be done to avoid similar tragedies? Countries, states and cities should have climate change plans to mitigate and prepare for extreme events. Those plans should also consider increasing green energy use, biodiversity restoration, minimization of impacts, etc. And map out the most vulnerable areas and people.


Experts hope this unique tragedy in Brazil becomes a turning point in the debate on climate change in the country. Because one thing is clear: climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and increasingly extreme. Indicators show that repetitive events are possible. 


We cannot continue acting like climate change is not part of our daily lives. The time has come to move away from this and do things in a different, better way. 

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© 2022 by Luiza Beirão Campos

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